Daily Homicides in Mexico Drop Thirty-Seven Percent Under Claudia Sheinbaum, Per Official Statistics

The typical figure of everyday killings monthly in the country has decreased by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per recent government data. However, security analysts have cautioned that murder numbers could fail to point to enhanced national stability.

Notable Decline in Daily Numbers

There was an average of nearly 55 murders a day in the month of November versus nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the presidential office in the previous September. This information was delivered by the director of the country’s national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that we have seen during these past months is remarkably notable,” Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that last month the smallest figure of homicides were registered for any November in the past 10 years.

Recent Background and Government Strategy

Intense drug cartel rivalries, alongside the administration's highly militarised campaigns to take on the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder numbers soar in recent times. The rate hit a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics office.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure over four times greater than the United States. However, homicides have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety plan for an apparently more pronounced reduction in killings this year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the head of state declared: “We have a plan, we have tracking of the plan, and we have specific monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The strategy functions. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The key components of Sheinbaum’s security plan encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigation work.
• Enhanced coordination between various authorities.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Limitations

Nevertheless, public safety analysts warned that using homicide data to paint a picture of improved security was problematic. This is notably true in light of the increase in different crimes such as forced disappearances.

“This would be very good news if this was a drop, but I think we shouldn't just look at the homicide data and say: ‘Oh well, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's cartels. “I would be cautiously positive.”

Per the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the identical period the previous year. Yet, disappearances have increased by 15% and in certain states have increased by as much as 200%.

“Data on murders is not valid for estimating the reality of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the inclination to properly recognize and categorize bodies. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the means to mask violence through abductions.”

Vargas noted that relying on month-to-month means of everyday killings was additionally concerning because it may obscure periods when there were notably elevated numbers of murders.

“Using the per-day mean makes high peaks of violence invisible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

Where the administration can point to the effectiveness of its security strategy is on detentions and seizures. Close to 40,000 individuals were detained between last October and this past November for high-impact crimes, according to official figures. More than 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tonnes of drugs intercepted.

“Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s very in political terms beneficial,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Anger

Yet notwithstanding these measures, Mexico continues to be plagued by extreme bloodshed, with multiple regions in the throes of cartel-driven bloodshed. Recently there was a prominent murder of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders assassinated in the last year.

A short time after, thousands of protesters protested in Mexico City and throughout the nation to show their frustration at graft and narco-violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a way to construct a story of safety. Politically it’s extremely potent, socially it’s very problematic,” the analyst remarked.